The Group of Seven nations and the European Union are advancing discussions on a sweeping new sanctions measure that would replace the existing Russian oil price cap with a full maritime services ban, according to six sources with direct knowledge of the talks. The shift aims to further restrict the oil revenues that fund Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.
Western Tankers Still Moving a Third of Russian Oil
Despite extensive sanctions introduced since 2022, Russia continues to ship more than one-third of its crude using Western-owned tankers—primarily from Greece, Cyprus, and Malta—and with the support of Western shipping services. Much of this oil goes to buyers in India and China.
A full maritime services ban would block insurers, shippers, and other service providers in G7 and EU states from supporting these operations, effectively shutting down this flow.
Shadow Fleet Likely to Expand
The remaining two-thirds of Russia’s oil exports already rely on a massive “dark fleet”—a collection of aging, lightly regulated tankers operating without Western oversight. If the G7 and EU adopt the maritime ban, Russia would likely need to expand this fleet even further to maintain export volumes.
Measure Under Review for 2026 Sanctions Package
Three sources said the ban is being considered for the EU’s next major sanctions package expected in early 2026. Brussels prefers alignment with a broader G7 consensus before formally presenting the measure.
British and U.S. officials have been spearheading technical discussions within the G7, though Washington’s final stance will depend on the strategic choices made by the Trump administration as it leads ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Closest Step Yet to a Full Prohibition on Russian Oil
While the G7 and EU largely halted direct imports of Russian crude in 2022, this new measure would mark their most extensive restriction yet—blocking not only imports but also transportation, financing, and maritime services for any Russian oil sold to third countries.
The price cap, introduced in late 2022, allowed nations outside the G7 to purchase Russian oil using Western services as long as they adhered to capped prices. Moscow responded by rerouting exports to Asia and relying more heavily on its own fleet.
Russia Increasingly Using Sanctioned Vessels
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), 44% of Russia’s oil exports in October traveled via sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers. Another 18% used unsanctioned vessels operating outside Western systems, while 38% of Russian oil still moved in tankers linked to the G7, EU, or Australia.
Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that the global fleet assisting sanctioned exports from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela now totals 1,423 tankers, with 921 already under sanctions from the U.S., UK, or EU.
Mixed Signals From Washington
The Biden administration originally supported the price cap strategy, arguing that forcing Russia to invest heavily in new tanker capacity would reduce its financial resources for the war.
However, the Trump administration has taken a more skeptical view and previously declined to back efforts by Britain, Canada, and the EU to lower the price cap to $47.60 per barrel in 2025.
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