Bitcoin (BTC-USD) moved above $90,000 on Wednesday, gaining momentum as broader equity markets extended their winning streak. Despite the upbeat tone in stocks, several analysts warned that Bitcoin’s rebound does not necessarily signal the beginning of a strong V-shaped recovery.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pushed toward a fourth straight day of gains, fueled by growing investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in December. Bitcoin’s rise followed a steep drop last Friday to $81,000, its lowest level since April.
According to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management, Bitcoin’s recent behavior has diverged from its usual pattern. “Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite are normally highly correlated, but that correlation has broken down in recent weeks with a much sharper drop in the price of Bitcoin,” he said.
Even with this latest bounce, Bitcoin remains down about 28% from its October all-time high above $126,000.
Why Analysts Are Not Celebrating Yet
Historically, Bitcoin performs well in the fourth quarter — but those gains almost always rely on a clear catalyst, according to Singapore-based 10X Research. A December rate cut is widely expected, but that alone may not spark a rally.
10X Research emphasized that Federal Reserve communication, not just rate moves, heavily influences crypto price action. “We do not view a December cut, if it occurs, as necessarily bullish for Bitcoin. And if the Fed does not cut, the risk of a sharper market sell-off likely increases,” the firm noted.
The firm also challenged assumptions that rising Treasury General Account (TGA) spending would automatically inject liquidity into markets. The last time the TGA released around $522 billion, Bitcoin initially plunged by about $14,000, or roughly 15%, and didn’t bottom until months later — suggesting any TGA influence may be delayed or indirect.
If a similar lag plays out, Bitcoin might continue sideways consolidation into late January 2026 before any liquidity-driven boost becomes visible.
Analysts Expect More Volatility Ahead
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel is hesitant to call a bottom. He warned that relief rallies are a classic hallmark of bear markets, often followed by swift selling pressure.
Engel sees potential resistance for Bitcoin between $92,000 and $95,000 if the current rally extends. However, he believes stronger signals — including increased long-term holder accumulation and more aggressive short positioning in futures — are needed to support a bullish case.
“Until then, we expect BTC to retest the ~$82k level and potentially break below $80k,” Engel said. He pointed to $65,000–$70,000 as a strong support zone but cautioned that Bitcoin could revisit the upper boundary of that range if downward pressure builds.
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